For more than two decades, China has been the motor of global economic growth. Gross domestic product leapt from $1.7 trillion in 2000 to $17.7 trillion in 2021. China is in many respects the workshop of the world, but growing wealth means it is also an important market for Western companies, too.

But there is trouble brewing. Growth has slowed markedly, with the Communist Party leadership announcing the lowest growth target, pandemic years aside, for decades. In March, outgoing premier Li Keqiang acknowledged there were ‘many difficulties’ with the economy and declared: ‘Insufficient demand is still a prominent issue… Stabilising employment is tough. And some local governments face big fiscal difficulties.’ Zero-Covid policies, since abruptly dropped, caused havoc with sudden lockdowns, but there are long-term issues, particularly around debt and the property market.

More broadly, the Communist Party has taken a turn towards a more authoritarian approach to society in recent years. Limits on freedom were often tolerated as the economy boomed – but will that still be the case when economic growth slows down? That said, while five per cent growth in 2023 is a relative downturn on the rapid growth of the recent past, such a figure would be fantasyland for the established industrialised countries, which expect little or no growth this year.

And then there are geopolitical issues to contend with. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has established closer diplomatic ties with Beijing – but is clearly the junior partner in the relationship. China continues to rattle its sabre in the direction of Taiwan, too, increasing tensions with the West.

Is the economic rise of China coming to an end – and what are the implications for the world economy and geopolitics? As geopolitical tensions increase, is anti-China sentiment a reasonable pro-democratic response from the West? Are we right to be concerned about China’s rise, or are Western commentators overly-paranoid about the power shift to the East? Might cutting links with China be counterproductive for the UK – turning out to be both diplomatically insensitive and economically illiterate?

SPEAKERS

Austin Williams
senior lecturer, Department of Architecture, Kingston University, London; honorary research fellow, XJTLU, Suzhou, China; author, China’s Urban Revolution: understanding Chinese eco-cities

James Woudhuysen
visiting professor, forecasting and innovation, London South Bank University